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Is there a chance that India will get a better future than China?



QUORA网站读者评论: 译者:Joyceliu

Rakesh Wagh, Observer of Indian and American politics

The answer to this question is really simple:

Both countries will have an excellent future if and only if they:

1.agree to co-operate with each other

2.accept each other’s differences

3.stop fighting on petty land issues

4.stop thinking of “geography domination” and “world domination”

5.Compensate for each other’s strengths and weaknesses








Minus that:

1.both governments will keep spending their energy in unproductive areas, like pulling each other down!

2.China will have to remain contended that it is a “geographic super power”(whatever that means) and has done more progress than India

3.India will eventually but very slowly uplift itself out of poverty

4.India will continue to remain couple of decades behind China, and China will continue to remain behind the west/US

5.both China and India have a massive population to support. Individual prosperity multiplied by population count means massive resource needs. Global resources are limited. American/European prosperity will never come to these nations if they end up spending huge resources on unproductive things like fighting amongst each other, intemediating each other, etc. I am not even sure if this planet will be able to support an American lifestyle for each individual Indian and Chinese. In search for prosparity, both these nations are pretty much blindly following the western capitalist path. This path is not sustainable. These nations must find “their own prosperity” and their own way to it

6.if the current geo politics continue, both these nation’s peak achievement will be uplifting the poor out of poverty and creating an ultra rich <1% population, that is it!

If India and China develop the level of trust and relationship as USA and Canada, both nations will lead the world, ONCE AGAIN! Type of government system is not a guarantee of prosperity.










Martin Mcknzie, Once tech improves I'll have Quora bots to bath my dogs

You seriously have to wake up



Aswin Ottapilavil, Indian

I don’t think either India or China is going to have a bad future. they both seems to be going to a good tomorrow. In the future better co-operation is also expected from both the countries as the economic style of India and china is is getting more similar lately.



Michael Lee, BSCS

No, while China is spending more on education, health, and infrastruture, India is busy with military built up leaving its people unattended, China is spending only 1.9% of its gdp on military while india is spending nearly 3% of its gdp on its military.



Sidney Wáng, I've been told I am surpressed.


Look at Indians in Silicon Valley. Indians have occupied Silicon Valley.

Indian and Chinese are both smart and hardworking. But Indian have a advantage. Their English is better than Chinese and they are good at social intercourse.

Good luck! Indians! I am your Chinese Friend.





Fang Deng

I would say that China has better future.


Personally, I think countries can choose whatever political/social system they desire, as long as they are happy with their choice. There shouldn’t be this constant competition. China just chose its own without attempting to compete with anyone. India, in my opinion, should settle whatever it chose and accept the outcomes.

Historically, China and India, the two oldest civilizations were existing side by side without competing. I think I am comfortable with that tradition.




Niraj Kumar, lived in India

The future of a country is closely linked with their economy. The USA is the superpower at the moment and they are the strongest economy in the world, holding free trade with many countries, and the same could be said for the British Empire, which was the dominant power in the world in the 18th and 19th centuries.

China is a huge economy already, and they have sustained incredible GDP growth for decades [which is remarkable due to the large population and size of the nation], and reality is that these people have worked very hard since 1978 to achieve this

The main source of their potential is the fact that they are already a huge economy, yet still low per capita income, and this means that more development needs to happen and will happen due to the conversion of China towards a service and consumption based economy [huge investment in R&D by China and increase in tech services].





However, they have some huge problems to their growth such as the ageing population which they have seen from the one child policy, and also the fact that they can not sustain export related growth due to the decline of growth in the global markets, and also they have a huge problem of debt and credit held by state-owned enterprises due to decades of spending fueled growth, and this spending has built up to cause a debt catastrophe in the making, if it is not handled properly.

In order to counteract this, China needs heavy reforms within the next decade, which are taking place in the current and next 5 year plan. However, they come at a cost of lower GDP growth in the meantime, and also for the future. This is similar to the Japan or the Korea model of growth to some extent, where rapid development of the economy initially led to high growth and fuelled momentum for the future developments, as the growth rate dwindled over time.




At the moment, China is at the 1985–90 [end of red points and start of blue dots] point on the above graph, their growth has peaked, and will remain over 5% for some years to come, and then will slow to a crawl in the coming decades. Currently South Korea’s GDP growth is at 0.8%, so we can say that the Chinese economy will be nearing that stage around 2050, and by then China will have reached a juggernaut-like GDP of around $50 - 60 trillion. This ties in with the latest PWC estimations of China’s GDP PPP at $61 trillion by 2050 [note that $61 trillion PPP will be nearer $50 trillion in real terms].

Now, India is far behind the Chinese on that matter, as we have an economy of about $2.3 trillion, compared to $11.4 trillion for China [21% of the size]. This means that we would have to sustain a GDP growth of 3% higher than China for 55 years [or 4% for 38 years] to catch up in terms of pure size. This is definately possible, and if any nation were to do it, it has to be India, the only nation which comes close in terms of population, geopolitical stance, and also in not having used low hanging fruit.

目前,中国处于1985-90年(红点结束,蓝点开始),经济增长已经见顶,未来几年仍将保持在5%以上,未来几十年将缓慢爬升。目前韩国的GDP增长率是0.8%,所以我们可以说,中国经济在2050年左右将接近这个阶段,到那时,中国的GDP将达到50 - 60万亿美元左右,成为世界主宰力量。这与普华永道最新估算的2050年中国购买力平价达到61万亿美元(请注意,按实际价值计算,61万亿美元的购买力平价将接近50万亿美元)相吻合。


Infrastructure deficit, access to healthcare and education,and bureaucratic corruption, amongst other issues, are huge problems that India will need to fully resolve before such a “catch-up” can happen, but these problems have been solved by many nations, so they can be done, and their methods can be studied and perhaps even re-used. The main thing that will lead India past China is the much larger population and younger population. India will have 300 million more people by 2050.

At the moment, India is at the same stage that China was in 2005–6, and they have shown huge growth from their to now [the 5-fold GDP growth we see today], but by then most of the Chinese advantages had been used up, and now they are facing the reform problems that they are. India has yet to do many real reforms, and so our period of high growth, with good governance, can start soon. At the very least, India should be able to maintain the 7–9% growth rate, and whilst China is at 4–6%, we see the 3% gap maintained, so over time India will catch up. By 2060, at 5% growth India’s GDP will be at $20 trillion, and at 9% growth India will be at $99 trillion. This is the bull and bear case of course, but realistically what will happen is that the Indian growth will be somewhere in the middle, and I think that a growth rate of 7% is sustainable, at least for the 2–3 decades coming, and with a growing and working age population, we could be looking at around a $30–35 trillion Indian economy by 2050, which will outgrow China and overtake by 2065–70, at which point China will have the higher GDP per capita due to population being 1.1 billion as opposed to 1.6 for India, but India will be the main power.







You have to look at the past, present and future.

In the past…. What were India good at? Was there anytime in history that India was strong?

Present: poverty, illiteracy, dysfuntional democracy and government. The bottom of the world in terms of eudcation, economy (GDP/head), system, government efficiency etc..

Future: India has to resolve the largest slums, iliiteracy, poverty, efficiency of the government, mentality of Indian etc. first…

If you look at the Quora and Indian media, India has been performing badly in level 1, and they are talking how good India would be when India is at level 5.

Please move forward to reach level 2, and level 3 first before you can talk how could you perform better in level 2 or level 3.










本文标签:印度  中国  未来

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